Thursday, January 3, 2008
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Predictions for Iowa...
Predictions:
2008 Democratic Iowa Presidential Caucus:
Hillary Clinton: 31%
John Edwards: 29%
Barack Obama: 26%
Joe Biden: 7%
Bill Richardson: 4%
Dennis Kucinich: 2%
Chris Dodd: 1%
2008 Republican Iowa Presidential Caucus:
Mike Huckabee: 27%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Ron Paul: 13%
John McCain: 12%
Fred Thompson: 12%
Rudy Giuliani: 8%
Duncan Hunter: 5%
Huckabee’s populist tactics will get people out and caucusing. Romney’s money and consulting will not.
Hillary’s machine will roll.
Edwards will have a last minute, Daily Kos fueled surge and cut some “15% deals” to grab second.
Ron Paul’s die-hards will caucus, and it will turn out he was slightly under polling because many of them were not classified as “likely voters.”
Biden and Hunter will do well enough to stay in it until New Hampshire if they really want to.
Look for Dodd to drop out before New Hampshire. There is a slight possibility Fred and Richardson could drop out also.
2008 Democratic Iowa Presidential Caucus:
Hillary Clinton: 31%
John Edwards: 29%
Barack Obama: 26%
Joe Biden: 7%
Bill Richardson: 4%
Dennis Kucinich: 2%
Chris Dodd: 1%
2008 Republican Iowa Presidential Caucus:
Mike Huckabee: 27%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Ron Paul: 13%
John McCain: 12%
Fred Thompson: 12%
Rudy Giuliani: 8%
Duncan Hunter: 5%
Huckabee’s populist tactics will get people out and caucusing. Romney’s money and consulting will not.
Hillary’s machine will roll.
Edwards will have a last minute, Daily Kos fueled surge and cut some “15% deals” to grab second.
Ron Paul’s die-hards will caucus, and it will turn out he was slightly under polling because many of them were not classified as “likely voters.”
Biden and Hunter will do well enough to stay in it until New Hampshire if they really want to.
Look for Dodd to drop out before New Hampshire. There is a slight possibility Fred and Richardson could drop out also.
Latest Zogby in Iowa...a horse race for 3rd in the GOP.
The latest Zogby poll shows a continued three way fight for first on the Democratic side and the continued Huckabee/Romney duel among Republicans.
However, the most interesting outcome on Thursday may be who "shows" in the GOP race. Currently McCain is polling 3rd with Thompson a close 4th, followed by Paul and Rudy. Can Rudy really finish 6th and still be a viable candidate?
A little less interesting, will be the race for 4th on the Democratic side between Biden and Richardson. Which also raises the question: Why is Chris Dodd still running?
Look for our predictions later today.
However, the most interesting outcome on Thursday may be who "shows" in the GOP race. Currently McCain is polling 3rd with Thompson a close 4th, followed by Paul and Rudy. Can Rudy really finish 6th and still be a viable candidate?
A little less interesting, will be the race for 4th on the Democratic side between Biden and Richardson. Which also raises the question: Why is Chris Dodd still running?
Look for our predictions later today.
John McCain lets you pay to win a chance to volunteer!
McCain's camp has announced a program where select donors of $50 or more will have the chance to "win" the right to spend next Monday and Tuesday in sunny New Hampshire volunteering for the campaign!
To their credit, the "winner" will get nice accommodations and access to the "victory" party out of the deal. Still, winning a chance to work for free doesn't seem like much of a prize. If he can sell that, maybe he really can beat Hillary.
To their credit, the "winner" will get nice accommodations and access to the "victory" party out of the deal. Still, winning a chance to work for free doesn't seem like much of a prize. If he can sell that, maybe he really can beat Hillary.
Tough night in Iowa.
Caucusing can be a pain. So reports the The International Herald Tribune.
Obstacles like this obviously mean that the level of enthusiasm behind a candidate's support is of increased importance in Iowa. This should benefit candidates like Huckabee, non-Hillary Democrats and even Ron Paul who seem to have created genuine enthusiasm among their supporters.
Obstacles like this obviously mean that the level of enthusiasm behind a candidate's support is of increased importance in Iowa. This should benefit candidates like Huckabee, non-Hillary Democrats and even Ron Paul who seem to have created genuine enthusiasm among their supporters.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Duncant Hunter...not subtle.
From an email by Team Hunter, entitled "Open Letter to the Iowa GOP:"
"Dear Iowegians,
Every presidential election season, your state has the opportunity to help shape the election going forward. Unfortunately, too many times, you have selected a dud during the Iowa Caucuses. In 1976, you picked Gerald Ford, proponent of the ERA and abortion rights, over a very conservative Ronald Reagan. In 1980, you chose a very moderate Bush over Reagan. And twice you picked a milquetoast named Bob Dole. Granted, the choices are sometimes between dud and duddier, but this year is different. This year you have a chance to select a rock-ribbed conservative Reaganite to make up for not choosing the original Reaganite when you had the chance. The name is Duncan Hunter."
Milquetoast is a word used far too seldom during election season.
"Dear Iowegians,
Every presidential election season, your state has the opportunity to help shape the election going forward. Unfortunately, too many times, you have selected a dud during the Iowa Caucuses. In 1976, you picked Gerald Ford, proponent of the ERA and abortion rights, over a very conservative Ronald Reagan. In 1980, you chose a very moderate Bush over Reagan. And twice you picked a milquetoast named Bob Dole. Granted, the choices are sometimes between dud and duddier, but this year is different. This year you have a chance to select a rock-ribbed conservative Reaganite to make up for not choosing the original Reaganite when you had the chance. The name is Duncan Hunter."
Milquetoast is a word used far too seldom during election season.
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